More on this topic soon, but today I wanted to yank on a couple of threads in recent stories looking at the mechanics of the 2024 presidential campaigns. First, the Biden campaign is following through on the field-heavy strategy they previewed last year. They’ve opened 150 field offices so far, with another 50 coming by the end of May, and the campaign staff is expanding to 500 in the coming weeks. Those staffers, along with thousands of volunteers, will be talking with voters at the receiving end of at least $14 million in ad spending this month alone, with much of it going to targeted outreach to minority groups and other priority segments of the electorate.
By contrast, Trump’s RNC takeover put the kibosh on the committee’s existing GOTV plans for 2024, including much of its support for candidates hoping to give Republicans control of the U.S. Senate next year. Many RNC staff members were let go, and while some of them eventually returned, the party seems more focused on “election integrity” (finding nonexistent voter fraud) than on getting potential Trump voters to the polls. Now, the party plans to focus its resources on six states most critical to Trump’s election, leaving Republican candidates in the other 44 states functionally on their own.
Of course, it’s possible that this situation will change in the months to come, particular if Trump’s lead in the polls dwindles. But by then, the prime organizing days could be over, denying the party the chance to gather crucial voter data and leaving it to turn to outside groups and paid canvassers for last-minute GOTV. In that case, as a high-level Biden staffer (disclosure: an acquaintance of mine) put it recently:
“If they decide to do any organizing work at all, they will almost certainly be forced to rely on expensive and last-minute tactics with folks who have never set foot in the communities in which they’re knocking doors,” said Dan Kanninen, the Biden campaign’s battleground states director.
To put it simply, the RNC’s current plan ignores pretty much everything we’ve learned about voter turnout in the past twenty years. Against a Biden campaign that started training volunteers and recruiting influencers more than six months ago, the Trump people seem to be unilaterally disarming. Screaming about phantom voter fraud in 2020 did a great deal of damage to the country, but it didn’t help the Trump campaign win a single electoral vote. Instead, it likely helped Democrats win control of the Senate. Unless the Republicans change course, the result could be a Republican wipeout in places where they SHOULD have won this year…had the party paid attention.
– cpd